WA Economic & Revenue Forecast Tracker
All figures come from the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), which publishes the state's official economic and revenue forecasts four times a year. This tracker compiles every ERFC economic forecast and revenue review since 2015, exactly as published, so you can see how the projections change from one report to the next.
— for —: — in the — report, — from the — report.
What each report forecast
Each point is one ERFC report's number for the selected year. Hollow points are preliminary reports, filled are final.
How the whole forecast path has shifted
The latest report's numbers by year, against the reports one and two years earlier.
Compared with the budget-writing forecasts
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Washington budgets cover two fiscal years. The Governor's proposal is built on the November report before the budget starts; the Legislature writes the budget on the March report of its first year. Permits are two-year totals; everything else is the two-year average.
| Measure | Shown as | Governor's budget | Legislative budget | Selected report | Change vs. Governor's | Change vs. Legislative |
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Every report's view of the biennium
The measure picked at the top of the page, for the budget period that contains the selected year, in every report that covered it. Dashed lines are the two budget-writing forecasts; the ringed point is the latest report.
What each forecast said
Each point is one adopted revenue forecast for the selected fiscal year, $ millions, cash basis. Hollow points are history (collections already in).
Compared with the budget-writing forecasts
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The Governor's proposed budget is built on the November forecast before the biennium starts; the Legislature writes the budget on the March forecast of the biennium's first year. Biennium totals, $ millions, cash basis. Forecasts after March also include revenue legislation passed in that session, so a difference from March is not all economic.
| Fund | Governor's budget | Legislative budget | Selected forecast | Change vs. Governor's | Change vs. Legislative |
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Every forecast of the biennium
The total for the budget period that contains the selected fiscal year, in every forecast that covered it, for the revenue measure picked at the top. Dashed lines are the two budget-writing forecasts; the ringed point is the latest forecast.
What moved the budget forecast
Total funds subject to the budget outlook: where the forecast started, the legislative (non-economic) and economic changes since, and the latest forecast. "Other" is the gap left when ERFC widened the funds counted. The axis does not start at zero.
Change at each forecast
$ millions. Economic includes collection experience in older reviews.
Baseline and alternative forecasts
The line is each forecast's baseline for the selected biennium; the bar runs from ERFC's pessimistic to optimistic alternative. Older forecasts cover General Fund-State only.
Collections compared with the forecast
Real estate excise tax collected since the previous forecast, minus what was forecast, as stated in each review ($ millions). Blank where the review gave no figure.
Mortgage rate assumed for the current year
The 30-year fixed rate each economic report assumed for its own calendar year (final report where there is one).
What each review said about the tax
Lines from each revenue review's executive summary, newest first.
| Review | $ millions | % | Summary |
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